A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
