Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
