It was eight weeks in the past that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while the Villa manager admonished him for not reading a pass in behind. Back then, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his displays were a sign or the reason for Villa's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, though, the sideline response was much more joyous. When Rogers swept in his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss discarded his coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win any of their first six matches, find themselves a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Hopefuls?
That’s a particularly tough question to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, while the victories have accumulated.
Per Opta, on just two occasions has the team registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club who have strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans look weirdly vulnerable – however currently the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with some crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened versus United.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, bent right inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. Against United, the opposition managed more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, surely, will not continue to thrashing his shots into the top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists another reality whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like an essential player for the national team.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As Rogers stood in front of the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
